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Banking & Finance

Kenya PMI Nears Growth as Confidence Rises

Rising inflation failed to dent optimism as Kenyan firms turned more upbeat about future output. Input costs rose, but output charges barely moved, underscoring subdued demand. Analysts say the PMI data point to a fragile yet steady recovery.

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Kenya’s private sector showed signs of stabilizing in August as the PMI climbed to 49.4 from July’s 12-month low. Business confidence hit its strongest level in 30 months. Hiring rose for a seventh straight month, marking the fastest pace in over a year.
Stanbic Bank’s PMI survey signaled Kenya’s closest approach to growth in over two years. Softer declines in orders and a rebound in inventories lifted sentiment. Economists see a rebound ahead, particularly in manufacturing.

Kenya’s private sector edges toward recovery in August 2025 as PMI hits 49.4, business confidence soars, and hiring reaches a 15-month high.

Kenya PMI Signals Recovery as Business Confidence Rises

Kenya’s private sector showed signs of recovery in August 2025, edging closer to growth as business confidence reached a two-and-a-half-year high.

According to Stanbic Bank Kenya, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.4 in August from July’s 12-month low of 46.8, indicating the softest contraction since May. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while anything below reflects contraction.

“The Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI pointed to a near recovery in business conditions across the private sector in August, after July data signalled that business activity was heavily dented by weak sales and protest-led disruption,” the bank said in its PMI report on Wednesday.


Softer Declines in Activity

The data showed that output, new orders, and purchasing fell at slower rates, while inventories returned to growth and employment expanded for the seventh consecutive month. Job creation, though mild, was the fastest in 15 months.

This was an improvement compared to

“New orders received by Kenyan businesses fell for the fourth month running in August,” the report noted. “However, the rate of decline softened markedly and was the slowest recorded in this period.”

Related: Egypt PMI Slumps on Weak Demand

Christopher Legilisho, Economist at Standard Bank, said employment conditions supported increased hiring, but noted that backlogs declined for a third month in a row, showing demand remains fragile.


Rising Costs but Softer Pricing

Despite the improvement, businesses faced mounting price pressures. Annual inflation rose to 4.5% in August, the highest since June 2023, up from 4.1% in July. When Kenya’s pmi hit a one year low as a result of protests.

Firms saw another sharp rise in input costs, largely from higher wages as companies adjusted salaries to offset living costs. Some firms also cited higher fuel levies and recent tax changes.Kenya’s

Still, output charges increased only marginally, marking the smallest rise in 12 months, as companies sought to attract demand.

“Output prices were increased only modestly,” Legilisho said. “However, there was a notable rise in wage costs … implying that inflation is rising against the backdrop of subdued aggregate demand.”


Confidence at a 30-Month High

Business optimism strengthened, with expectations for future output hitting their highest level since February 2023.

Companies said they were banking on new marketing efforts and product diversification to drive growth.

“Firms, especially in manufacturing, are more upbeat about output over the next 12 months, which should imply healthier business activity in the coming months,” Legilisho added.

Banking & Finance

Kenya’s Rise as Africa’s New Capital Hub

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Banking & Finance

Equity Group Expands Into Southern Africa as It Bets on Africa’s Trade Corridors

FY2025 results show more than half of Equity’s profits now come from regional subsidiaries.

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Equity Group is expanding into Southern Africa, targeting Angola, Zambia, and Mozambique through acquisition-led growth.
Dr.James Mwangi, CEO of Equity Group Holdings, is steering the lender’s transformation into a pan-African banking powerhouse by aligning expansion with Africa’s trade and mineral corridors.Presently, the DRC remains Equity’s strongest regional earnings hub and central to its continental strategy.

Equity Group targets Angola, Zambia and Mozambique as it expands along Africa’s mineral corridors and deepens regional banking scale.

🧠 Executive Intelligence Overview

As a result of its strong FY2025 performance, Equity Group Holdings is accelerating a major expansion into Southern Africa. The lender is now targeting Angola, Zambia, and Mozambique in a strategic shift that reflects Africa’s evolving trade and mineral corridor economy.

Chief Executive James Mwangi confirmed in a Reuters interview on April 29, 2026, that the group is actively pursuing acquisition opportunities rather than greenfield market entry. This approach signals a deliberate pivot toward established financial institutions in structurally different markets.

Meanwhile, Equity’s strategy is increasingly shaped by Africa’s infrastructure-driven growth corridors, particularly the US-backed Lobito Corridor linking Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

According to the World Bank, African financial systems are becoming more deeply integrated with trade logistics and commodity supply chains, which is reshaping cross-border banking expansion strategies.


🏛️ 1. From Rural Origins to Continental Banking Power

The institution’s current trajectory is anchored in a transformation that began 35 years ago, when Equity operated as a rural building society in central Kenya.

Since then, the lender has evolved into Kenya’s most profitable bank and one of Africa’s fastest-expanding financial groups. This transformation reflects a broader structural shift in African banking, where domestic institutions are increasingly becoming regional platforms.

In contrast to its early-stage operations, Equity now competes across multiple African markets, including Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.


📊 2. FY2025 Performance Underpins Expansion

Equity’s expansion push is strongly supported by its FY2025 financial results.

  • Profit after tax: KSh 75.50 billion (~USD 582 million)
  • Annual growth: 55%
  • Regional subsidiaries contribution: 51% of total banking profit before tax

This performance highlights a structural shift in earnings away from Kenya toward regional subsidiaries.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund notes that African banks with diversified regional exposure tend to demonstrate stronger resilience during domestic economic cycles, particularly in volatile macroeconomic environments.


🌍 3. DRC Remains the Core Profit Engine

The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to play a central role in Equity’s regional strategy.

The lender is currently the second-largest bank in the country, following acquisitions completed in 2015 and 2020. These transactions helped establish a strong market position in one of Africa’s most underbanked but resource-rich economies.

As a result, the DRC has become Equity’s most important regional earnings hub outside Kenya.

FY2025 performance reflects this dominance:

  • Profit: KSh 24.70 billion (~USD 190 million)
  • Growth: 58% year-on-year
  • Estimated market share: ~24%

Moreover, the World Bank continues to classify the DRC as a frontier financial market with significant long-term inclusion potential despite elevated operational risks.


🚢 4. Lobito Corridor: The Structural Growth Logic

Equity’s expansion strategy is increasingly aligned with the Lobito Corridor, a strategic infrastructure route supported by the United States.

This corridor connects:

  • Angola (Atlantic export gateway)
  • Zambia (copper belt and mineral transit hub)
  • DRC (resource extraction base)

Consequently, banking expansion is no longer being driven by national boundaries but by trade flow systems.

Mwangi emphasized in the Reuters interview that expansion decisions are now guided by customers and trade routes rather than geography alone.

This reflects a broader trend identified by the International Finance Corporation, which highlights the growing importance of infrastructure-linked financial ecosystems in emerging markets.


🇦🇴 🇿🇲 🇲🇿 5. Southern Africa Expansion Targets

Equity is actively pursuing acquisition-led entry into three key Southern African markets.

📍 Angola

Angola represents the most advanced target market. The country serves as a strategic Atlantic export gateway for minerals and energy resources.

📍 Zambia

Zambia plays a critical connector role between the DRC and Mozambique, particularly in copper and mineral logistics.

📍 Mozambique

Mozambique provides access to Indian Ocean trade routes and is expected to become Equity’s sixth non-Kenyan subsidiary.

In addition, Mwangi confirmed ongoing high-level engagement with Mozambique’s leadership, reinforcing the strategic importance of the market.


⚖️ 6. Regulatory and Structural Constraints

Despite strong expansion momentum, regulatory differences across African markets continue to shape entry strategy.

Earlier efforts in Ethiopia were slowed by foreign ownership restrictions limiting stakes in local banks, prompting a strategic shift toward Southern Africa.

As a result, Equity has prioritized markets with clearer acquisition pathways and more flexible regulatory environments.

The Bank for International Settlements notes that regulatory fragmentation remains one of the most significant constraints on cross-border banking expansion in emerging economies.


📡 7. Acquisition-Led Growth Strategy

Unlike traditional expansion models, Equity is increasingly favouring acquisitions over greenfield entry.

This strategy is driven by three operational realities:

  • Language and cultural differences in new markets
  • High cost of establishing new banking infrastructure
  • Need for immediate market scale and deposits

As Mwangi explained, acquiring established institutions allows Equity to scale faster while transforming existing operations into regional platforms.


🌍 8. Competitive Landscape Across Africa

Equity’s expansion is unfolding within a highly competitive African banking environment.

Key competitors include:

  • Ecobank (pan-African network)
  • UBA (United Bank for Africa)
  • State-linked financial institutions
  • Regional banks expanding cross-border

The World Bank highlights that Africa’s banking sector remains fragmented, with low credit penetration but increasing exposure to sovereign debt across multiple jurisdictions.


⚠️ 9. Risk Environment

While growth prospects remain strong, Equity’s expansion is exposed to structural risks.

These include:

  • Currency volatility across Southern Africa
  • Regulatory fragmentation between jurisdictions
  • Commodity price sensitivity in mining economies
  • Macroeconomic instability and political transitions

Nevertheless, the long-term opportunity remains anchored in Africa’s demographic growth, infrastructure investment, and commodity cycles.


🌐 Conclusion: A Shift to Corridor Banking

Equity Group’s Southern Africa expansion reflects a deeper transformation in African finance.

The banking model is evolving from:

  • Country-based expansion
    ➡️ to
  • Corridor-based financial ecosystems

In this new structure, banks are increasingly aligning with trade routes, commodity flows, and infrastructure networks rather than national boundaries.

Ultimately, Equity is positioning itself not simply as a regional lender, but as a financial institution embedded within Africa’s evolving economic geography.

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Inside the DRC Banking Rush: Who Is Entering First

Digital banking is enabling faster, lower-cost entry into fragmented financial environments.

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Regional banks are accelerating entry into the DRC. Early movers are shaping Africa’s fastest-growing banking frontier.
The DRC is emerging as a key battleground in Africa’s cross-border banking expansion.

Regional banks are racing into the DRC as Equity, KCB, CRDB and others compete for Africa’s fastest-growing banking frontier.


🧠 Inside the DRC Banking Rush: Who Is Entering First

A new wave of regional banking expansion is reshaping Africa’s financial map, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) emerging as the most aggressively contested frontier.

Unlike earlier phases of African banking growth, which focused on domestic consolidation, the current cycle is defined by cross-border competition for underbanked populations and resource-driven economies.

According to the World Bank, the DRC remains one of the least financially included large economies in the world, with banking penetration still below 20% in many estimates. This structural gap is now attracting regional lenders seeking long-term growth.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund has identified the country as a frontier economy where financial deepening could significantly accelerate formal economic activity.

👉 The result is a competitive entry race—where timing is now a strategic advantage.


🏦 1. The First Movers: East Africa’s Banking Giants

The earliest and most aggressive entrants into the DRC banking landscape include:

  • Equity Group Holdings
  • KCB Group
  • CRDB Bank
  • Bank of Kigali

These institutions are not simply opening branches—they are building regional banking ecosystems that integrate retail, SME, and trade finance services across borders.

For example, Equity Group Holdings has positioned the DRC as a strategic growth pillar within its pan-African model, reflecting a shift from national banking to continental banking platforms.

KCB Group has similarly expanded its regional footprint through subsidiaries and partnerships, leveraging cross-border integration to capture trade flows between East and Central Africa.

👉 These early movers are shaping the competitive structure of the market.


💰 2. Why Early Entry Matters

In frontier banking markets like the DRC, timing is not just an advantage—it is a structural determinant of market share.

Early entrants typically benefit from:

  • First access to corporate clients
  • Stronger brand recognition
  • Early deposit base accumulation
  • Relationship dominance in SME lending

The International Finance Corporation has consistently emphasized that financial institutions entering underserved markets early tend to establish long-term structural advantages, particularly in environments with low competition density.

👉 In the DRC, being first often means shaping the rules of engagement.


📡 3. Digital First Entry: The New Banking Model

Unlike traditional banking expansion, entry into the DRC is increasingly driven by digital infrastructure rather than physical branches.

Banks are deploying:

  • Mobile banking platforms
  • Agent banking networks
  • Integrated fintech partnerships

This approach reduces operational costs while expanding reach into rural and semi-urban populations.

Institutions such as Equity Group Holdings are leveraging digital ecosystems to scale rapidly across fragmented infrastructure environments.

This aligns with insights from the World Bank, which highlights digital financial services as a critical driver of inclusion in low-infrastructure economies.

👉 Digital entry is now the default expansion strategy.


⛏️ 4. Resource-Linked Banking: The Corporate Entry Layer

Beyond retail banking, corporate banking tied to the DRC’s resource sector is a major entry driver.

The country’s vast reserves of copper, cobalt, and gold create high-value financing opportunities for banks in:

  • Trade finance
  • Commodity-backed lending
  • Mining sector project finance

The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly identified the DRC’s resource sector as a key macroeconomic stabiliser and long-term growth driver.

👉 This makes the DRC not just a retail banking opportunity—but a corporate finance frontier.


⚖️ 5. Competition Structure: A Regional Contest

The DRC banking market is now shaped by regional competition rather than isolated expansion.

Key competitive blocs include:

  • Kenyan banking groups
  • Tanzanian financial institutions
  • Rwandan regional banks

Each is targeting overlapping segments:

  • Retail deposits
  • SME credit
  • Trade finance corridors

At the same time, informal financial systems remain dominant in many regions, meaning formal banks must compete against deeply entrenched cash economies.


📉 6. Risk Environment: Why Entry Is Not Simple

Despite strong opportunity, the DRC remains structurally complex.

Key challenges include:

  • Currency volatility and dollarisation
  • Weak credit information systems
  • Infrastructure gaps in financial services
  • Regulatory fragmentation

The Bank for International Settlements notes that frontier markets with fragmented regulation and high volatility tend to experience amplified operational risk during rapid financial expansion cycles.

👉 This makes execution capacity as important as market entry.


🌍 7. The Bigger Picture: Why This Matters Regionally

The DRC banking rush is not an isolated event—it is part of a broader East and Central African financial integration process.

It connects directly to:

  • Cross-border banking expansion
  • Regional trade corridor financing
  • Fintech-enabled financial inclusion
  • Currency and liquidity interdependence

👉 The DRC is becoming the central node in regional banking integration.

🚀 Conclusion: A Market Defined by First Movers

The DRC banking rush is not about who enters eventually—it is about who establishes dominance early.

First movers are not just entering a market—they are shaping:

  • Customer acquisition patterns
  • Financial infrastructure
  • Competitive pricing structures
  • Regional capital flows

As the World Bank and International Monetary Fund both emphasize in different ways, financial deepening in frontier economies is a long-cycle transformation.

👉 In the DRC, that transformation is already underway—and the entry race has begun.

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