U.S. supports a 1-year AGOA extension; African exporters may suffer amid tariffs and tight deadlines for renewal.
A senior White House official confirmed that the Trump administration supports a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire at the end of the month. While the move offers some reassurance to African exporters, significant uncertainty remains over whether Congress will act in time.
Trade flows underscore the stakes
U.S. trade with Africa has been rising: in 2024, total goods trade reached roughly $72 billion, with exports to Africa at $32.4 billion and imports at $39.6 billion, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. The trade deficit stood at about $7.2 billion.
Under AGOA specifically, U.S. imports from beneficiary countries dropped to about $8 billion in 2024, down from $9.3 billion in 2023, according to a Congressional Research Service note. In 2023, imports under AGOA totaled nearly $9.7 billion, led by crude oil ($4.2 billion), apparel ($1.1 billion) and agricultural products, data from the Center for Global Development shows.
These figures illustrate how much is now at risk if AGOA were allowed to lapse.
Background: a pact under pressure
First enacted in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, AGOA grants eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market across many product lines. Over the decades, it has become a primary vehicle of U.S.–Africa economic engagement.
However, that preferential access has been eroded by the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs—ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent—on several African exports. These measures have muted AGOA’s advantages, creating distrust among beneficiary nations.
Supporters argue AGOA has sustained hundreds of thousands of jobs in over 30 countries and served as a counterbalance to China’s rising presence in Africa.
Renewal prospects and obstacles
Despite White House backing, the window for Congress to renew AGOA is narrow. Leaders anticipate its extension may need to ride on a stopgap funding bill, a common legislative strategy for time-sensitive measures.
Still, internal divisions complicate that path. Some U.S. lawmakers question AGOA’s long-term efficacy and fairness, especially in a climate where tariffs have distorted the original benefits.
From the African side, pressure is intensifying. Delegations from Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa and others have urgently lobbied lawmakers and trade officials to act. Lesotho’s trade minister warned that delays could cost garment sector jobs.
South Africa’s trade minister, Parks Tau, voiced cautious optimism, noting bipartisan support in Congress but suggesting any extension is likely to be short (one to three years) to allow for later reforms. Tau is also in talks with U.S. officials over tariff relief on South African exports hit by 30 percent duties.
Consequences of lapse
If AGOA expires—even temporarily—analysts forecast sharp harm to sectors such as apparel, metals, chemicals, and agriculture. The International Trade Centre estimates Lesotho’s clothing exports could fall by nearly 29 percent, while South Africa’s car exports might shrink 23 percent by 2029.
Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Eswatini are also seen as particularly vulnerable. Some firms already say they are cancelling U.S. orders or pivoting to alternative supply chains, according to Business of Fashion.
Beyond the economic toll, a lapse in AGOA would represent a diplomatic setback for the U.S. in Africa—particularly as China and others deepen their trade and investment presence across the continent.
The road ahead
A multiyear renewal seems unlikely in the short term. A one-year extension is the most politically feasible option under current constraints. Still, such a stopgap would not fully restore trust or correct structural distortions caused by recent tariffs.
Which way Congress leans—and whether it can build bipartisan momentum quickly—will determine whether AGOA endures, is reshaped, or quietly disappears. Time is ticking.
