As Kiir undergoes tests abroad, South Sudan’s power struggle intensifies with Bol Mel rising amid health fears and political crackdowns.
With President Salva Kiir of South Sudan undergoing medical tests abroad, analysts believe a long-gestating succession plan is now in motion. Kiir, 73, returned Wednesday from a 10-day stay in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), officially described as an effort to explore economic cooperation with the Gulf.
However, AFP quoted anonymous aides confirming the trip was for medical tests—fueling long-standing speculation over Kiir’s deteriorating health.
Rising Tensions and the Rise of Bol Mel
South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation since its independence in 2011, has endured conflict and hardship—including a civil war (2013–2018) that killed over 400,000 people.
Analysts say the latest wave of political unrest stems from Kiir’s efforts to install businessman Benjamin Bol Mel as his heir. Bol Mel, a construction tycoon once sanctioned by the United States for corruption in 2017, is now second vice-president and deputy leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
He chaired last week’s cabinet meeting during Kiir’s absence.
“It seems to be a script written a long time ago and being implemented in phases,” said exiled activist Wani Michael.
Suppression of Rivals and Crackdown on Opposition
To clear the path, Kiir has cracked down on rivals:
- Riek Machar, his longtime political opponent, was placed under house arrest in March 2025.
- Machar’s allies have been arrested or disappeared.
- Over 700 people were killed in violence between January and March 2025, per UN reports.
Kiir’s forces also launched military offensives against Machar’s strongholds, particularly targeting the Nuer ethnic group.
In October 2024, Kiir fired intelligence chief Akol Koor, another potential contender, and Bol Mel began replacing key security personnel with loyalists.
Health Rumours and Public Secrecy
Discussion of Kiir’s health remains taboo in official circles.
“If you want to visit a grave quickly, talk about it,” one local activist told reporters anonymously.
Yet, footage from his April 2025 meeting with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni showed Kiir moving in slow, deliberate steps. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was even forced to deny death rumours in May.
During his recent return from the UAE, state media carefully avoided showing him walking—while Bol Mel assumed leadership roles in his absence.
Is Violence Subdued or Merely Muted?
While the country has seen a reduction in large-scale warfare, the cost has been high. The humanitarian toll is severe, yet less than the full-blown massacres of previous years.
“The government has been fairly successful in subduing the various rebellions,” said a diplomat in Juba, requesting anonymity.
Machar’s camp remains divided and has offered minimal retaliation, even amid sustained attacks.
Bol Mel’s Roadblocks: No Popular or Global Legitimacy
Despite consolidating control, Bol Mel faces significant headwinds:
- No popular legitimacy among citizens.
- Low international credibility.
- A failure to hold South Sudan’s first national elections, delayed again until 2026.
“Elections are the only viable way for a peaceful transfer of power,” said Edmund Yakani, head of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation (CEPO).
“We need the power of our vote in shaping the future. Not the bullet, and not leaders imposed on us.”
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