Angola’s economy is set to surpass Kenya’s in 2024, driven by diversification and oil rebound. IMF projects $122B GDP for Angola.
In a surprising shift in Africa’s economic rankings, Angola is projected to overtake Kenya as the third-largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)‘s October 2024 forecast.
The IMF estimates Angola’s GDP will hit $122 billion, slightly surpassing Kenya’s forecasted $119 billion. The development marks a remarkable turnaround for Angola, which has historically relied on oil exports but is now reaping the benefits of economic diversification.
Angola’s Economic Surge: Oil Recovery and Diversification
Angola’s economic momentum is driven by two main forces:
“The oil industry has always been central to Angola’s economy, but we realized the need for diversification,”
said Vera Daves, Angola’s Minister of Finance.
She emphasized investments in infrastructure, education, and agribusiness as critical to Angola’s shift toward long-term sustainable growth.
Kenya’s Growth Slows Amid Debt, Inflation, and Reforms
In contrast, Kenya is grappling with:
Kenya’s economy has also been hit by unpredictable weather, affecting agricultural output, and global supply chain disruptions.
“We are addressing structural reforms to manage debt and attract private investment,”
stated John Mbadi, newly appointed Kenya’s Treasury Secretary.
Despite setbacks, sectors like telecoms and banking remain strong, with firms like Safaricom expanding regionally, especially in Ethiopia.
Regional Shift in Economic Power
Angola’s projected leap over Kenya signals a realignment in Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic hierarchy. Traditionally, Kenya has held the mantle of East Africa’s largest economy, but Angola’s diversification strategy is changing the narrative.
“Angola’s rise shows how African economies are becoming more dynamic and adaptable,”
said David Ndung’u, economist at the University of Nairobi.
With both Angola and Kenya being active participants in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), this new dynamic could affect trade relations and investment flows across the continent.
Implications for East and Southern Africa
Angola’s strengthening economy is likely to:
Nevertheless, analysts believe Nairobi will remain a key financial and technology hub, especially with projects like the Konza Technopolis still gaining traction.
Angola vs. Kenya: Different Growth Models
- Angola is betting on infrastructure, mining, and agro-processing, supported by oil revenue.
- Kenya is pushing tax reforms, digital services, and fiscal consolidation, but faces IMF program constraints.
“This is just the beginning. Angola can sustain this growth and become a major player on the global stage,”
said Minister Vera Daves.
Meanwhile, Kenya’s John Mbadi remains hopeful:
“Kenya’s potential is undeniable. We are working to restore stability and investor confidence.”
What Lies Ahead?
As Africa’s economies evolve:
- Angola’s $122B GDP forecast places it third in Sub-Saharan Africa, behind Nigeria and South Africa
- Kenya will need to accelerate reforms and stabilize its currency to remain competitive
Despite Angola’s current lead, the race for regional dominance is ongoing. Both countries are poised to shape Africa’s next chapter on the global economic stage.
Keywords:
Angola economy growth • Kenya IMF forecast • Sub-Saharan Africa GDP • African economic outlook 2024 • Angola surpasses Kenya • Vera Daves Angola • John Mbadi Kenya
